Dec 12, 2022
Every time you tune into CNBC you hear predictions about when the recession will hit. Then, when the Fed will pivot. But are people focused on the wrong things? Jay Pestrichelli is back with Derek Moore to discuss markets, earnings, and why the contrarian take is everyone can’t be right. Plus, the more the yield curve inverts, the harder it will be for a recession to arrive in 2023.
2023 Earnings EPS scenarios review
Forward P/E ratios and where multiples will be
Why the market goes up or down form here (or sideways)
Employment differences in the Household Survey vs Establishment Survey
NFP labor market survey low response rate
Atlanta Fed Wage tracker moving in wrong direction (moving higher)
Monthly Inventories and sales ratios showing higher inventory builds
PPI comparing core less food and energy with total PPI
PPI higher but lower YoY number
History of Fed Pivots and where we are now in the cycle
Index of companies with international sales inverse with US Dollar strength
Why the dollar needs to go lower
Shanghai to Los Angeles container shipping rates almost back to pre-Covid average
Mentioned in this Episode:
Podcast FTX Crypto Debacle | Yield Curve Inversion | Enough with Recession Talk https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ftx-crypto-debacle-yield-curve-inversion-enough-with/id1432836154?i=1000586865880
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3iSUbXp
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com