Nov 3, 2024
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli go through the recent
unemployment numbers to see whether it was as bad as reported.
Plus, did the recent hurricane throw off the surveys? Then they
look at next week’s prediction for interest rates for the Fed
Meeting. Derek and Jay pull up the 30-year mortgage rate vs the
10-year treasury and talk about what’s happened since the first Fed
cut. Later they look at housing starts vs completions and try to
make sense of whether it's bullish or bearish, the market
concentration of the top 10 stocks, seasonality in the S&P 500
index, and looking at earnings so far including whether companies
are beating and what sectors are doing well. Then stay tuned as
Spencer Wright joins Derek to review the data in the upcoming
election. Are the polls accurate? How is Trump performing vs Biden
and Clinton in previous races? The electoral college states that
matter and even a potential election tie.
Unemployment disappoints?
How the predictions all missed except for Bloomberg survey that was
closer
Analyzing the jobs data and is it the bad news is good news again
scenario ahead of the Fed? Earnings beats and evaluating the EPS
and revenue by sector
S&P 500 Index seasonality post elections and non-election
years
Housing starts minus completions and what it means if anything
The stock markets current bullish streak
Top 10 S&P stocks now 37% of the index
US Federal government spending vs. tax revenue
30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury go higher since 1st
Fed cut
What are fed funds futures predicting for rate cut at next week’s
Fed meeting?
Is bad weather to blame for low respondent rates to employment
surveys?
Trump vs. Harris based on the latest polling data
Will the polls be accurate this time (correcting polling
errors?)
Predictions on who will win
Comparing Trump’s numbers this year 2024 vs 2020 and 2016 in the
swing states
Mentioned in this Episode
2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
https://www.270towin.com/
BLS October Employment release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage US Average
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
US Market Returns by Political Party Historical
https://zegafinancial.com/blog/should-investors-be-
worried-about-the-election-and-what-to-do-if-you-are
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking
https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek
derek.moore@zegainvestments.com