May 19, 2025
Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future. All that and more this week.
S&P 500 Index net profit margins for Q1 2025
Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are low but is that a good thing?
Looking at how often intra year lows on average are -14% but often markets end higher
12-month inflation expectations are now 7.3% highest since 1981
Hard vs soft data
Velocity of M2 Money Stock
What has been working asset class wise in 2025 YTD
15 biggest rallies since 1950 and subsequent forward total returns
Atlanta Fed GDP Now
Investment banks starting to reduce recession probabilities
Attribution of earnings EPS growth
DeGraaf and Zweig Breadth Thrusts occurring within 1 month of each other
Explaining the difference between Moodys, Fitch, and S&P bond ratings
Moodys downgrades US Debt
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com