Oct 27, 2024
Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli talk about everyone talking about Goldman’s 3% annual return target for next 10 years. What’s behind their analysis includes whether the S&P 500 Index has too much concentration. Then they discuss what is responsible in retrospect for markets going up or down including profit margins, sales, buybacks, dividends, and EPS. Later, they talk about gold and its huge jump in 2024. Finally, how underwhelming the small caps have been relative to past bull markets, S&P 500 Index constituent turnover, and Apple’s options volatility pre-earnings.
Goldman Sachs base case of 3% annualized return next 10 years
Vanguard’s June 2024 10 year forward annualized return estimates
How market movement is attributed to EPS, Sales, Dividends, Margins, and Buybacks
Historical 10-year constituent turnover for S&P 500 Index
Touching on Meb Faber’s observation of both Gold and the S&P 500 above 25% return for year
Small caps lowest bull market return covering 13 bull markets since 1949
Apple earnings and the option volatility
Cost of the Apple straddle a week before earnings
Uber’s implied volatility pre-earnings week
Spread between the 30-year mortgage and the 10-year treasury yield
What if mortgage rates and long bonds go up not down?
MBS bonds (mortgage backed securities) nuances
Mentioned in this Episode
Goldman Sachs forward baseline 3% annual return forecast next 10 years full report https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2024/10/18/29e68989-0d2c-4960-bd4b-010a101f711e.pdf
Vanguard June 30th 2024 10 year forward returns forecast https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html#:~:text=The%20largest%20shift%20was%20in,Capital%20Markets%20Model%20(VCMM)
Mortgage Spreads and The Yield Curve Economic Brief Richmond Federal Reserve Bank https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2023/eb_23-27
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt
Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
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