Mar 31, 2019
The yield curve has inverted. Well it did at certain points last December already. Now that the 3-month Treasury Bill yield went above 10-year yields, historically what does that mean? Has the yield curve inversion predicted every recession and if so how long in advance? Plus, calculated annualized returns doesn’t need to be that complicated right? Learn the differences in annualizing using simple averages versus geometric compounded averages. Finally, how do you calculate a real inflation adjusted return?
- • Yield Curve Inversion: 3-month Treasuries yields higher than 10-year yields?
- • How long historically has yield curve inverted prior to recessions?
- • Difference between Fed Funds rate, Discount Rate, and IOER or Interest on Excess Reserves
- • What are real returns versus nominal returns
- • Why is it potentially bad for short term bond rates to be above long-term rates?
- • Why do people think yield curve inversions are bad?
- • How to calculate simple average of annual investment returns
- • How to calculate real inflation adjusted investment returns?
- • Geometric annualized returns calculation and use
Mentioned in this Episode:
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Yield Curve article https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-gdp-growth.aspx
Podcast Explaining What Yield Curve Inversion Means https://www.iheart.com/podcast/269-broken-pie-chart-29878781/episode/what-is-the-yield-curve-inversion-29880275/