Feb 6, 2022
Derek Moore discusses how the recent selloff is due to a multiple contraction rather than an earnings one. How 2021 and now so far in Q1 22 stocks are rerating by shrinking the multiple. Plus, what the shape of the yield curve is telling us in light of expected Fed action on interest rates.
Driver of stock prices multiple declines vs earnings expansion
PE Ratios coming down on a forward basis
Earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index for 2022 only shrink nominally
What is the yield curve
Yield curve steepness vs inversion
What the yield curve is telling us about views on continued economic expansion
Inversions before recessions
Inflation breakeven rates
Probability of Fed hikes updated
Mentioned in this Episode:
Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&
Marcel Benjamin explains how TIPS bonds work https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tips-inflation-protected-bonds-explained-interest-rate/id1432836154?i=1000535445537
JP Morgan Guide to the markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/
Fed Rate Probability Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html