Feb 20, 2022
Derek Moore explores how stock and bonds have done after the Fed starts raising rates. Is there any difference between when they raise greater than 1% compared to less than 1%? Why people should be surprised in March when February CPI numbers are released. More debate about what caused inflation. Plus, stocks continue to rerate with multiples contracting while earnings are up year to date.
Examining stocks and bonds after the Fed starts raising rates
Inflation causes
February CPI released in March indicated to be high still by Cleveland Fed Nowcast
Supply side vs demand side inflation
How fiscal policy contributed to inflation
How have high yield bonds done after the Fed starts raising rates
Small caps vs large caps after the Fed starts raising rates
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast
Atlanta Fed GDP Now
Mentioned in this Episode:
Contact Derek Moore derek.moore@zegafinancial.com
Derek Moore’s Book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547?ref_=nav_signin&
Surprising stock market returns by President, Senate, and House party make up podcast. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/surprising-historical-returns-by-presidents-senate/id1432836154?i=1000489545724
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx
Atlanta Fed GDP Now https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
JP Morgan Guide to the markets https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/protected/adv/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/
Fed Rate Probability Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html