Feb 5, 2023
Derek Moore is back to talk about the one thing no one seems to think is a possibility with interest rates. Plus, why the tightening of the triple BBB corporate bond spreads above 3-month Treasury Bills and Fed Funds is something to watch for markets. Then, Derek explains the 4 stock market scenarios people are watching.
Disconnect between market expectations and the Fed
Spread between corporate bonds and treasuries narrows
BBB Corporate bond spread to Fed Funds smallest since 2007
What do interest rate spreads mean?
How are interest rate spreads calculated?
What happens when spreads widen or narrow in bonds and stocks?
What are Overnight Reverse Repos
Fed Funds ranges vs exact rate
What is the effective fed funds rate
Where to find the fed funds rate
CME Fed Interest Rate probability tool
The federal reserve dot plots
Mentioned in this Episode:
What are Overnight Reverse Repos ON RRP that Fed is using nowhttps://open.spotify.com/episode/09VOIffldtn3WxNm7rzyNx
Effective Fed Funds Rate https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr
See Probabilities of future Fed Funds hikes or lowering https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The triple BBB bond spread https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLC0A4CBBB
Wall Street Journal banks predict recession and Fed Pivot in 2023 https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-banks-predict-recession-fed-pivot-in-2023-11672618563
Prof Aswath Damodaran market scenarios post https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2023/01/data-update-2-for-2023-rocky-year-for.html
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr
Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com